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Saturday, September 29, 2012

EURUSD Holds 1.2820 Support after Spanish Budget, But for How Long? | DailyFX

Good Morning Traders;

                                                           WATCH THIS VIDEO HERE:
EURUSD Holds 1.2820 Support after Spanish Budget, But for How Long? | DailyFX
Skepticism was temporarily sidelined this past session as the market offered an optimistic evaluation of the Spain 2013 budget. EURUSD responded by bouncing off of technically-important support at 1.2820, while risk trends enjoyed a hearty rally of its own. Yet, we have to evaluate this move against market conditions that curbed trend development and shown steady progress towards unwinding the post-Fed QE3 rally. Have we revived the larger trend with this jump or is it merely a correction? Will the quarter-end seasonality effect carry weight through Friday? What do underlying risk trends look like? We discuss this and more in today's video.

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Thursday, September 27, 2012

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Sunday, September 23, 2012

prelaunchX Invitation

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Friday, September 21, 2012

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Thursday, September 20, 2012

EURUSD: Trading the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision


Trading the News: European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 09/06/2012 11:45 GMT, 7:45 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: 0.75%
Previous: 0.75%
DailyFX Forecast: 0.75%
Why Is This Event Important:
Although the European Central Bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 1.00%, President Mario Draghi may push through additional non-standard measures as the debt crisis continues to drag on the real economy. Indeed, there’s reports that the European Central Bank will introduce a sterilized,unlimited bond purchasing program to stem the heightening risk for contagion, but we may see the Governing Council refrain from capping bond yields as they look to target short-term maturities. However, the rate decision may fail to shore up investor confidence as there appears to be a growing rift within the ECB, and we may see President Mario Draghi attempt to buy more time as the non-standard comes under increased scrutiny.
Recent Economic Developments

Release
Expected
Actual
Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)
1.6%
1.8%
Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (AUG)
2.5%
2.6%
Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (JUN)
5.0B
10.5B
The Downside
Release
Expected
Actual
Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)
-0.2%
-0.2%
Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (AUG F)
46.6
46.3
Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUL)
11.3%
11.3%
Beyond the fundamentals, speculation surrounding the asset-purchase program may have a larger impact on the EURUSD as ECB President Mari Draghi pledges to take the appropriate steps to save the monetary union, but we will also be closely watching the central bank’s fundamental assessment as the region faces a deepening recession. Indeed, the central bank may show a greater willingness to carry out its easing cycle throughout the remainder of the year amid the slowdown in production paired with the ongoing weakness in the labor market, but the recent pickup in price growth may spark a less-dovish statement as the ECB maintains its one and only mandate to ensure price stability.

Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision

 Although we’re seeing the EURUSD threaten the downward trend carried over from 2011, the pair continues to find resistance around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2640-50, and the pair may struggle to maintain to maintain the ascending channel from June should the ECB rate decision disappoint. However, if we see the Governing Council rollout a ‘bazooka’ to tackle the debt crisis, the move may fuel a relief rally in the EURUSD, and we may see the upward trending channel continue to take shape should the pair break and close above the 23.6% Fib.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Trading the ECB rate decision may not be as clear cut as some of our previous trades amid all the speculation surrounding the meeting, but the market reaction may set the stage for a long Euro trade should the central bank layout its asset purchase program in further detail. Therefore, if President Draghi announces an open-ended plan to bring down borrowing costs across the periphery countries, we will need to see a green, five-minute candle following the announcement to generate a buy entry on two-lots of EURUSD. Once these conditions are fulfilled, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing low or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will establish our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to breakeven one the first trade hits its mark in order to preserve our profits.
However, criticisms surrounding the non-standard measure paired with the ongoing rift within the central bank may make it increasingly difficult for President Mari Draghi to push through an unlimited bond-buying program, and the committee may refrain from releasing any additional details regarding the non-standard measure as it waits for Germany’s high court to rule on the European Stability Mechanism. As a result, if the ECB meeting fails to prop up market sentiment, we will implement the same strategy for a short euro-dollar trade as the long position laid out above, just in the opposite direction.
Impact that the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision has had on EUR during the last meeting

Period
Data Released
Estimate
Actual
Pips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
AUG 2012
08/02/2012 11:45 GMT
0.75%
0.75%
-11
-84
August 2012 European Central Bank Interest Rate Decisio

As expected, the European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.75% in August, but went onto say that the Governing Council may ‘undertake outright open market operations’ as the sovereign debt crisis continues to drag on the real economy. Although the ECB increased its pledge to shore up the region, the lack of an immediate response sparked a bearish reaction in the Euro, and we saw the single currency struggle to hold its ground throughout the North American trade as the pair ended the day at 1.2178.
Questions? Comments? Join us in the DailyFX Forum
View the Expo Presentation on ‘Trading the News’ For Additional Resources
Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.


06 September 2012 02:00 GMT 
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Good Luck & Happy Trading;

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Sunday, September 16, 2012

US Dollar Index (ICE) Continuous Contract Weekly



The USDOLLAR has broken major support. The path is towards USD weakness for at least the next few weeks but the proximity of major technical levels in most USD crosses suggests that now is as good a time as any for a corrective USD advance. 60 minute (short term) and 240 minute (medium term) RSI declines (for XXX/USD crosses) below 50 should help time short USD entries.
US Dollar Index (ICE) Continuous Contract Weekly


“The relationship between the US Dollar Index in 1995-1996 and now was pointed out to me by Trend Wave 
 The charts tell the story and it’s uncanny. Not only do the patterns show remarkable similarity in form, but also in time and amplitude.” Needless to say, this week’s action has eliminated the 1995-1996 pattern as a guide. The drop below the 2/29 low (see small black horizontal line) negates the series of higher highs from the May 2011 low. In 1996, the drop held above its swing low.
Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)
Weekly



The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) has dropped below the May low, is testing the March low, and is fast approaching the February (and 2012) low of 9672. The 61.8% retracement of the 2011-2012 advance is just above at 9700. At some point, consolidation will take for at least several days and the USDOLLAR will rally, albeit in a corrective manner before additional losses. 9670 to the current level (9755) is a good place for consolidation to take place. 9820/60 is resistance.
Euro / US Dollar
Weekly

The EURUSD has ripped through the May gap at 13080 and reached the well-defined 13145; the October 2011 low, 38.2% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high and 50% retracement of the decline from the October 2011 high. The 78.6% retracement of the decline from this year’s high (13485) comes in at 13176. Trendline resistance (May 2011 and September 2011) is at about 13280 next week, which is also the May high. The cluster of technical levels from the current level to 13280 increase the probability of a countertrend decline taking place. The goal is to identify the end of the countertrend decline in preparation for new highs. 13000/80 is estimated support.
British Pound / US Dollar
Weekly
The GBPUSD has rallied through the trendline that extends off of the April and August 2011 highs. Focus is squarely on the May (and 2012) high at 16301 and then the trendline that extends off of the 2009 and 2011 highs. That line crosses roughly 16497 next week and decreases slightly more than 3 pips per week. 16130/75 is now support. Like all USD crosses, expect USD strength to prove corrective.
The GBPUSD has rallied through the trendline that extends off of the April and August 2011 highs. Focus is squarely on the May (and 2012) high at 16301 and then the trendline that extends off of the 2009 and 2011 highs. That line crosses roughly 16497 next week and decreases slightly more than 3 pips per week. 16130/75 is now support. Like all USD crosses, expect USD strength to prove corrective.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
Weekly
The AUDUSD is at the August high and trendline that extends off of the 2011 and 2012 highs. Ideally, this level leads to short term exhaustion and trigger a corrective decline. Estimated support is 10470/10500. It is possible that today’s rally completes a triangle leg from the June low but not probable. Why? Opening range implications for the month (bullish) and RSI on intraday (240 min and 60 minute) charts (extremely strong which is suggestive of a bull trend). Expect support as RSI dips to 50 on 240 minute charts and 40 on 60 minute charts.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
Daily
The USDJPY took out the June low and registered its lowest daily close since early February on Thursday. As focused on last night, the drop satisfies minimum expectations from the 3 wave advance off of the June low. The downside bias has proved correct but the USDJPY is notorious for false breakouts. Moreover, some measured of volatility spiked to their highest levels since June 1 (an important low). Beware of a snap back above 7800.” I’m not how I missed this yesterday, but after another look it is possible that Thursday’s decline completed a terminal thrust from a triangle. The implications are for a return to 8061. Of course, this goes against the monthly trend (high for the month is 7903) but the USDJPY seems to play by its own rules.

Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.







Thursday, September 13, 2012

Majors Consolidate as Fate of US Dollar in Balance with FOMC Today | DailyFX

Majors Consolidate as Fate of US Dollar in Balance with FOMC Today | DailyFX



The US Dollar is broadly mixed to start Thursday, in what could perhaps be its last stand against a recent onslaught across the board. Following four out of five very disappointing labor market readings as measured by Nonfarm Payrolls (April: +68.0K; May: +87.0K; June: +45.0K; July: +141.0K; August: +96.0K) and US growth barely moving higher at an annualized rate of +1.7%, expectations are running high for another round of quantitative easing out of the Federal Reserve.
At the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Chairman Ben Bernanke outlined an argument that was sufficient enough to “conclude that nontraditional policy tools have been and can continue to be effective in providing financial accommodation,” though he was careful to note that “[policymakers] are less certain about the magnitudes and persistence of those effects than we are about those of more-traditional policies.”Expanding on this, Chairman Bernanke said that “one possible cost of conducting additional LSAPs is that these operations could impair the functioning of securities markets…a second potential cost of additional securities purchases is that substantial further expansions of the balance sheet could reduce public confidence in the Fed’s ability to exit smoothly from its accommodative policies at the appropriate time.”
Overall, the Federal Reserve chairman concluded that “it seems clear…that such [nontraditional] policies can be effective…taking due account of the uncertainties and limits of its policy tools, the Federal Reserve will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to promote a strong economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.”Thus, the Federal Reserve is primed to act, willing to act, but is not sure that what has been used in the past will be as effective going forward. As such, any new forms of easing, in our opinion, are likely to be cut from a different cloth than previously deployed LSAPs or MEPs, likely aimed at helping consumers and home owners more directly.
Taking a look at credit, peripheral European bond yields are back up (marginally), weighing on the Euro’s bullish technical bias. The Italian 2-year note yield has increased to 2.210% (+8.7-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 2.748% (+7.0-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield has increased to 5.019% (+1.1-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has increased to 5.633% (+7.9-bps); higher yields imply lower prices.
RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 10:48 GMT
JPY: +0.19%
NZD:+0.06%
GBP:+0.06%
EUR:+0.05%
CAD:+0.02%
CHF:-0.15%
AUD: -0.27%
Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): +0.04% (-1.58% past 5-days)
ECONOMIC CALENDAR

The docket is packed today with a few very important events, all revolving around the United States. At 08:30 EDT / 12:30 GMT, the USD Producer Price Index (AUG) report is due, and is expected to show that inflationary pressures at the factory gate (as opposed to at the cash register, which is what the Consumer Price Index measures) are back on the rise, a poor sign for a downtrodden American consumer whose annual income household has fallen back to 1995 levels. But later in the day is when the fireworks will start.
At 12:30 EDT / 16:30 GMT, the Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision is due, where it is widely expected that the key interest rate will be on hold at 0.00% to 0.25%. But a change in rate is not what makes this meeting important; instead, market participants will be eagerly awaiting to see the FOMC Economic Projections at 14:00 EDT / 18:00 GMT ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Press Conference at 14:15 EDT / 18:15 GMT.
To view my thoughts on the matter, please revisit the articles below.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
BB represents Bollinger Bands ®
EURUSD: Nothing has changed: “The EURUSD made a huge technical breakthrough on Friday by shattering a yearlong descending trendline off of the August 2011 and October 2011 highs. This now marks the potential for a long-term bottom at the 1.2040/45 low. Additionally, while our bias for a move towards 1.1500 by November 1 is negated, a weekly close back within the channel – back below 1.2620/35 (former yearly low set in January) – would suggest a false breakout has occurred.” Near-term resistance comes in at 1.2930/35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement on February high to July low) and 1.2980/1.3000. Support comes in at 1.2820/25 (late-May swing highs), 1.2740/50, 1.2620/35, 1.2500/10, and 1.2460/80.
USDJPYThe June 1 swing low at 77.65/70 is being tested currently but without a daily close below said level, we believe there is scope for a rebound. It is unlikely that such an event will occur barring a significant fundamental catalyst: the Federal Reserve announces a major outright bond-buying program. We’ve been suggesting that “penetration of the August low at 77.90 will likely result in a washout to new lows with the potential for 77.65/70 and 77.30.” While this has begun, we remain cautious for the rest of the day with the FOMC on deck. A move back above 77.90 exposes 78.10/20, 78.60, and 79.10/30 (100-DMA, 200-DMA, descending trendline off of the April 20 and June 25 highs)
GBPUSDWe’ve maintained: “As long as price on the daily chart is supported by 1.5930/40, there’s reason to believe that a run up to 1.6120/40 is possible during September.” Yesterday, the GBPUSD rallied into 1.61020/40 and has reversed, suggesting a near-term top may be in place now that the short-term trend is conflicting with major resistance in the longer-term trend. Should 1.6120/40 break, the former April swing highs at 1.6260 (by close), 1.6300 (by high) are in focus; this would also represent a break of the descending trendline off of the April 2011 and August 2011 highs. Below 1.5930/40, near-term support comes in at 1.5860/75 (ascending trendline off of August 2 and August 31 lows), 1.5770/85 (late-August swing lows), and 1.5700.
AUDUSD: The AUDUSD has pared back its gains today, working on an Inside Day with the potential for a false break out on the horizon. The pair is currently sitting at immediate near-term support at 1.0435/45 (mid-July and early-August swings), with additional support come in at1.0380/1.0400 and 1.0320/25 (200-DMA, early-July swing highs). In the short-term, there are two key levels to the upside: 1.0530/45 (former highs in July and August) and 1.0560/70 (descending trendline resistance off of the February 29 and August 9 highs).
Optionbit:  provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from Optionbit:

Good luck & Happy Trading;
Terry B.





Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Forex Trading : Keeping It Simple.


 Good Morning My friends & Fellow Traders;

I find that Trading can be fun and profitable. I am not going to tell you that I make 1000s a day. I don’t, not that you cant. I just like to keep it simple and stick too my goal of 100 dollars a day. I do this by using my:
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If you have  joined me in The PreLaunchX  You should have some circles open by now and you should have bought the Trend wave system and have your practice Acc  set up and have a better understanding of how the forex  trading works.

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Happy Trading;
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Tuesday, September 11, 2012

What is a Pip? What you should know.


Good morning Traders,


Pips
PIPstands for Point In Percentage.   More simply though, a pip is what we in the FX world consider a “point” for calculating profits and losses.  In a standard (10k) account, each pip is worth roughly one unit of the currency in which your account is denominated.  If your account is denominated in USD, for example, each pip (depending on the currency pair) is worth about $1.  In a micro account, each pip is worth roughly 1/10th the amount it would be worth in a standard account -- so about $0.10.
In all pairs involving the Japanese Yen (JPY), a pip is the 1/100th place -- 2 places to the right of the decimal.   In all other currency pairs, a pip is the 1/10,000 the place -- 4 places to the right of the decimal.
                                 




You’ll see that in the Trading Station the digits for pips are in a larger font.  This makes them easier to see.
At  Optionbit:  we quote each currency pair with precision to 1/10th of a pip.   So you’ll see quotes listed to the 1/1,000th place for JPY pairs and you’ll see quotes listed to the 1/100,000th place for all other pairs.  This fraction of a pip allows price providers to bring spreads down even further as they are not restricted to quoting in full pip increments. 
                                          

                                                    
Now for how to calculate the value of a pip.  There is a simple equation.  
First you start with the size of your trade.  Micro lots are 1k, so if you want the value of a pip for a micro lot you start with 1,000.  If you want the value of a pip for a standard lot, you start with 10,000.  You then multiply your trade size by one pip for the pair that you are trading.
I may have lost some people there so we’ll go through an example.  
In my example here we are going to calculate the value of a pip for one 10k lot of EUR/USD.
So since I am using standard 10k lots, I’m starting with 10,000.  I multiply 10,000 by .0001 since 1/10,000th is a pip for all pairs (except JPY pairs).
That gets me a value of 1.  That will be valued in the “counter currency” (second currency) of the pair that I am trading.  In this example, I am trading EUR/USD, so USD is the counter currency of the pair.  One pip is worth 1 USD dollar for one 10k lot of EUR/USD.
If my  Optionbit:  account is based in US Dollars, then I will see $1 of profit or loss on my account for every 1 pip move that the EUR/USD makes in the market. 
Now, if my Optionbit:   account is based in British Pounds (GBP), I would have to convert that $1 USD into Pounds.  To do so, I just divide by the current GBP/USD exchange rate which at the time of writing is 1.5829.  I’m dividing here because a Pound is worth more than a USD, so I know my answer should be less then 1.1 divided by 1.5829 is 0.6318 Pounds.   So now I know that if I have a Pound based account, and profit or lose one pip on 1 10k lot of EUR/USD, I will earn or lose 0.6318 Pounds.
Let’s do another example of GBP/JPY
Again we’ll go with a one 10k lot trade.
This time a pip is .01 because it is a JPY pair.  
10,000 times .01 is 100.  Again, that “100” is in terms of the counter currency, so it is 100 Japanese Yen (JPY).
Now we need to convert that 100 JPY to the denomination of your account.  If you have a USD based account, then you take the 100 JPY and divide it by the USD/JPY spot rate, which at of the time of writing is 91.09.  That gets you an answer of $1.098 per pip.
To help understand pips and pip calculations even further you may want to consider doing some practice calculations on your own.  
To make things easy for you   Optionbit:    :  displays the value of a pip for each currency pair in the Trading Station, in the currency that your account is based in.  In the advanced Dealing rates view you’ll see it shown between the “Roll S” and “Roll B” fields.
                                                  


In the Simple Dealing Rates view you’ll see it listed under the Pip Cost column.


DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from 

Optionbit:                 Remember; KEEP IT SIMPLE !!!
                                                                                                 &
                                                                          Have Fun!!!
                                                               
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